Dengue Model (DM)
Current efforts to reduce dengue burden largely focus on prescribed vector control guidelines that fail to consider variations in dengue transmission dynamics between seasons and among different locations.
Quantitive models are the best way to account for inherent variation in dengue transmission and to predict how fluctuations in local dengue mosquito vector populations will impact the incidence of disease among humans.
The IVCC is supporting the development of a user-friendly computer model for simulating populations of the dengue mosquito vector Aedes aegypti and dengue virus transmission based on location-specific data; specifically, climate, mosquito biology and behaviour, virus factors, human demographics and immune status. Various control interventions, such as insecticide space spraying, removal of mosquito development sites, insecticide-treated materials and vaccines can be introduced into the programme to assess the relative impact of individual or combined disease control strategies.
The newly-developed Windows™ version of the programme has undergone extensive evaluation to confirm full functionality. Simulation results have compared to field-derived data collected in the Amazonian city of Iquitos in Peru by the University of California (Davis) and the United States Naval Medical Research Institute Detachment. Work also continues to improve the functionality and usability of the system. The validated programme will be translated into languages other than English.
Our goal is to make the programme freely available as a component of the Dengue Decision Support System, so that at a variety of different levels (e.g. national, regional or local) public health, vector control or government officials can contrast and select surveillance and control options that are best for their particular circumstances. The simulation programme will aid vector control programme managers, public health officials and policy makers in the development of more effective public health goals, control targets and disease reduction strategies.
Work on the integration with DDSS will begin in 2010. Field testing will also be undertaken by us and by third party collaborators.